Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in May 2027 (ET)?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $169 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$168.93

Combined PnL

-$18.1

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$167.18

Total Shares168

Combined PnL-$0.34

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares438

Combined PnL-$17.77

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

731h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$69.89	$69.62	-$0.27	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$57.94	$57.68	-$0.26	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$90.01	$39.88	+$0.2	39% 3153-4977 (8130)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.58	$0.8	-$0.14	73% 352-132 (484)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$12.15	$0.62	-$11.53	18% 1302-6126 (7428)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$2.94	$0.15	-$2.64	51% 151-144 (295)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.05	$0.14	-$0.91	76% 12513-3844 (16357)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.2	$0.03	-$0.23	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
QU quietparcelCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$123.86	$0.02	-$2.32	50% 9910-9917 (19827)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$69.89

Value

$69.62

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

korda77<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$57.68

PnL

-$0.26

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$90.01

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

3153-4977 (8130)

M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.14

Record

73%

352-132 (484)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.15

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$11.53

Record

18%

1302-6126 (7428)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.94

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$2.64

Record

51%

151-144 (295)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.91

Record

76%

12513-3844 (16357)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.23

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

quietparcelCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.86

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.32

Record

50%

9910-9917 (19827)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

731h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

12 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7300.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

7400.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.