Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in June 2027 (ET)?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $297 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$297.39

Combined PnL

-$6.26

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$295.77

Total Shares298

Combined PnL-$1.62

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.63

Total Shares216

Combined PnL-$4.64

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

506h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.9¢	$179.76	$178.56	-$1.2	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$57.94	$57.54	-$0.41	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$80.01	$29.91	+$0.05	39% 3153-4977 (8130)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$30.84	$29.76	-$0.06	31% 3549-7932 (11481)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.7	$1.4	-$0.17	73% 352-132 (484)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.2	$0.17	-$1.17	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$53.85	$0.06	-$3.3	50% 9910-9917 (19827)

smallreceipt

Invested

$179.76

Value

$178.56

PnL

-$1.2

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

korda77<$100

Invested

$57.94

Value

$57.54

PnL

-$0.41

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$80.01

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

3153-4977 (8130)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$30.84

Value

$29.76

PnL

-$0.06

Record

31%

3549-7932 (11481)

M2sx92kljs42CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.17

Record

73%

352-132 (484)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$1.17

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.85

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$3.3

Record

50%

9910-9917 (19827)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

506h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.