Will Anthropic sell between 9% and 10% of its shares in its IPO?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $375 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$374.87
$0.33
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $224.47 | $224.78 | +$0.3 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $79.72 | $79.86 | +$0.14 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.26 | $20.26 | +$0 | 37% 190-317 (507) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.98 | +$0.04 | 52% 5324-4829 (10153) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.9 | -$0.04 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.99 | +$0 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.22 | $0.11 | -$0.11 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
Invested
$224.47
Value
$224.78
PnL
+$0.3
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.72
Value
$79.86
PnL
+$0.14
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$20.26
Value
$20.26
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
190-317 (507)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
5324-4829 (10153)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.9
PnL
-$0.04
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.11
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.