Will Anthropic sell between 10% and 11% of its shares in its IPO?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $352 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$352.42
$0.12
99.8¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $224.45 | $224.55 | +$0.1 | 10% 36-325 (361) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $79.76 | $79.78 | +$0.02 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.96 | +$0 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $18.14 | $18.15 | +$0.01 | 37% 267-450 (717) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $9.98 | -$0.01 | 78% 249-70 (319) |
Invested
$224.45
Value
$224.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
10%
36-325 (361)
balthazar<$100Invested
$79.76
Value
$79.78
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$18.14
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
267-450 (717)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.98
PnL
-$0.01
Record
78%
249-70 (319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.