Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic raise between $95B and $105B in its IPO?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 24¢ · $556 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$556.03
$28.51
12.6¢ → 23.7¢
+88% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 83.5¢ | $1.0K | $340.85 | -$39.58 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.5¢ | $284.44 | $260.07 | -$38.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24¢ | $81.91 | $80.78 | -$1.13 | |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $68.61 | $144.02 | +$27.8 | 49% 1812-1893 (3705) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $70.46 | $71.16 | +$0.71 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.