Will Anthropic raise between $75B and $85B in its IPO?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 68¢ · $983 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$982.88
-$158.07
86.2¢ → 68.3¢
-21% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $4.7 | $525.06 | -$70.75 | 50% 1229-1247 (2476) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 91.4¢ | $567.56 | $311.56 | -$78.63 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 77.3¢ | $47.88 | $48.7 | +$0.82 | 20% 2356-9209 (11565) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $39.82 | $37.44 | -$2.39 | 60% 10613-7204 (17817) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 79.2¢ | $41.6 | $27.01 | -$4.37 | 53% 7606-6732 (14338) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 70.9¢ | $17.02 | $16.38 | -$0.64 | 43% 3021-3946 (6967) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $12.06 | $10.67 | -$1.38 | 79% 10892-2961 (13853) |
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.6¢ | $3.18 | $6.06 | -$0.73 | 77% 1422-420 (1842) |
Invested
$4.7
Value
$525.06
PnL
-$70.75
Record
50%
1229-1247 (2476)
IstarothInvested
$567.56
Value
$311.56
PnL
-$78.63
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$47.88
Value
$48.7
PnL
+$0.82
Record
20%
2356-9209 (11565)
Invested
$39.82
Value
$37.44
PnL
-$2.39
Record
60%
10613-7204 (17817)
Invested
$41.6
Value
$27.01
PnL
-$4.37
Record
53%
7606-6732 (14338)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$16.38
PnL
-$0.64
Record
43%
3021-3946 (6967)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.06
Value
$10.67
PnL
-$1.38
Record
79%
10892-2961 (13853)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$6.06
PnL
-$0.73
Record
77%
1422-420 (1842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.