Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anthropic raise between $65B and $75B in its IPO?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$692.06

Smart Money Entry

12.2¢ → 20.4¢

+67% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$915.94

Total Shares3,166

Combined PnL+$737.46

No3 traders

Total Value$148.32

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$45.41

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$77.02	$763.62	+$686.6	48% 1386-1529 (2915)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 21.4¢	$80.52	$120.04	+$39.53	52% 8995-8175 (17170)
Haradwaith	Noavg 87.8¢	$142.47	$105.9	-$36.57	57% 41427-31210 (72637)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 85.2¢	$108.15	$28	-$6.22	16% 1408-7550 (8958)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$17.32	$21.22	+$41.4	14% 9498-60732 (70230)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$17.04	$14.42	-$2.62	49% 22831-23659 (46490)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 10.2¢	$109.74	$5.59	-$9.24	22% 1864-6613 (8477)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$4.21	$3.67	-$0.54	16% 415-2223 (2638)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$242.88	$1.79	-$20.27	13% 680-4591 (5271)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$77.02

Value

$763.62

PnL

+$686.6

Record

48%

1386-1529 (2915)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$80.52

Value

$120.04

PnL

+$39.53

Record

52%

8995-8175 (17170)

Haradwaith

Invested

$142.47

Value

$105.9

PnL

-$36.57

Record

57%

41427-31210 (72637)

WarriorH

Invested

$108.15

Value

$28

PnL

-$6.22

Record

16%

1408-7550 (8958)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.32

Value

$21.22

PnL

+$41.4

Record

14%

9498-60732 (70230)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$17.04

Value

$14.42

PnL

-$2.62

Record

49%

22831-23659 (46490)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.74

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$9.24

Record

22%

1864-6613 (8477)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.21

Value

$3.67

PnL

-$0.54

Record

16%

415-2223 (2638)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$242.88

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$20.27

Record

13%

680-4591 (5271)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.1%

20.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$353.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

453.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.