Will Anthropic raise between $115B and $125B in its IPO?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.2K
-$27.81
83.7¢ → 91.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 84.3¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$0 | 53% 1110-993 (2103) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 78.5¢ | $721.1 | $663.24 | -$22.77 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $62.3 | $59.01 | -$3.29 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $17 | $15.7 | -$1.3 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
 themagicofcinemaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $4.05 | $3.6 | -$0.45 | 66% 408-206 (614) |
Invested
$4,494.24
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1110-993 (2103)
IstarothInvested
$721.1
Value
$663.24
PnL
-$22.77
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Invested
$62.3
Value
$59.01
PnL
-$3.29
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
Invested
$17
Value
$15.7
PnL
-$1.3
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
themagicofcinemaCTR<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.45
Record
66%
408-206 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.