Will Anthropic raise between $105B and $115B in its IPO?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$81.42
77.6¢ → 92.5¢
+19% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 75.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.6K | -$101.3 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 83.2¢ | $334.68 | $349.77 | +$13.07 | 77% 1422-420 (1842) |
LI lissartterARB<$100 | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $152.48 | $143.19 | -$9.29 | 42% 5362-7388 (12750) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.6¢ | $77.03 | $97.63 | +$20.04 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $97.58 | $45.56 | -$29.33 | |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $47.72 | $51.01 | +$3.29 | 60% 10613-7204 (17817) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $20.88 | $22.32 | +$1.44 | 43% 3021-3946 (6967) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $13.99 | $15.13 | +$1.14 | 57% 17040-12786 (29826) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $13.6 | $14.54 | +$0.94 | 79% 10892-2961 (13853) |
IstarothInvested
$2,018.6
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$101.3
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
Invested
$334.68
Value
$349.77
PnL
+$13.07
Record
77%
1422-420 (1842)
Invested
$152.48
Value
$143.19
PnL
-$9.29
Record
42%
5362-7388 (12750)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.72
Value
$51.01
PnL
+$3.29
Record
60%
10613-7204 (17817)
Invested
$20.88
Value
$22.32
PnL
+$1.44
Record
43%
3021-3946 (6967)
Invested
$13.99
Value
$15.13
PnL
+$1.14
Record
57%
17040-12786 (29826)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$14.54
PnL
+$0.94
Record
79%
10892-2961 (13853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.