Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$234.57

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 97.6¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,059

Combined PnL+$142.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$112.1

Total Shares4,663

Combined PnL-$377.01

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 67.2¢	$181.3	$258.78	+$77.48	49% 8980-9510 (18490)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.8¢	$180	$175.68	-$0.3	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
GO god83743894	Noavg 98¢	$157.83	$154.32	-$3.51	46% 10395-12108 (22503)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 94.2¢	$142.99	$138.39	+$57.77	56% 18392-14302 (32694)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 89¢	$89.89	$96.81	+$6.92	44% 6591-8244 (14835)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$73.18	$76.68	+$3.5	31% 3549-7933 (11482)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 12.7¢	$384.73	$72.86	-$311.87	53% 29752-26614 (56366)
JE Jesetrading<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$73.44	$71.68	+$1.84	67% 651-315 (966)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$51.1	$49.84	-$1.26	51% 3760-3626 (7386)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$2.1K	$33.42	-$48.14	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$17.71	$2.98	-$14.74	25% 1751-5373 (7124)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$99.62	$2.39	-$1.4	27% 7002-19130 (26132)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$5.35	$0.45	-$0.86	77% 12520-3844 (16364)

smallreceipt

Invested

$181.3

Value

$258.78

PnL

+$77.48

Record

49%

8980-9510 (18490)

cigarettes

Invested

$180

Value

$175.68

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

god83743894

Invested

$157.83

Value

$154.32

PnL

-$3.51

Record

46%

10395-12108 (22503)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$142.99

Value

$138.39

PnL

+$57.77

Record

56%

18392-14302 (32694)

korda77<$100

Invested

$89.89

Value

$96.81

PnL

+$6.92

Record

44%

6591-8244 (14835)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$73.18

Value

$76.68

PnL

+$3.5

Record

31%

3549-7933 (11482)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$384.73

Value

$72.86

PnL

-$311.87

Record

53%

29752-26614 (56366)

Jesetrading<$100

Invested

$73.44

Value

$71.68

PnL

+$1.84

Record

67%

651-315 (966)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$51.1

Value

$49.84

PnL

-$1.26

Record

51%

3760-3626 (7386)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,139.04

Value

$33.42

PnL

-$48.14

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.71

Value

$2.98

PnL

-$14.74

Record

25%

1751-5373 (7124)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.62

Value

$2.39

PnL

-$1.4

Record

27%

7002-19130 (26132)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.35

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.86

Record

77%

12520-3844 (16364)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.