Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 97¢ · $359 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$359.49

Combined PnL

$87.53

Smart Money Entry

90.2¢ → 97.3¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$318.92

Total Shares328

Combined PnL+$86.55

Yes7 traders

Total Value$40.57

Total Shares2,646

Combined PnL+$0.98

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.4¢	$1.1K	$133.23	+$23.85	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99¢	$144.23	$64.87	-$39.86	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 54.1¢	$196.73	$58.38	+$95.39	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
GO god83743894	Noavg 94.6¢	$599.87	$29.19	+$15.66	38% 16029-25855 (41884)
Lucerys	Noavg 98¢	$741.46	$23.35	-$9.18	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
QM QMG-CORECTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$5.73	$11.9	+$6.17	77% 1509-454 (1963)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$15.51	$11.8	-$9.94	17% 4528-22232 (26760)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Noavg 90¢	$9.09	$9.9	+$0.69	42% 2468-3377 (5845)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.52	$8.4	+$5.87	45% 116-141 (257)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.92	$6.65	+$13.23	73% 3108-1129 (4237)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$19.93	$1.23	-$10.21	37% 3313-5704 (9017)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.2	$0.32	-$2.34	27% 659-1763 (2422)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yes	$0.25	$0.25	-$1.81	27% 2564-7001 (9565)

balthazar

Invested

$1,056.14

Value

$133.23

PnL

+$23.85

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

cigarettes

Invested

$144.23

Value

$64.87

PnL

-$39.86

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

haveagoodday

Invested

$196.73

Value

$58.38

PnL

+$95.39

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

god83743894

Invested

$599.87

Value

$29.19

PnL

+$15.66

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

Lucerys

Invested

$741.46

Value

$23.35

PnL

-$9.18

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

QMG-CORECTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.73

Value

$11.9

PnL

+$6.17

Record

77%

1509-454 (1963)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.51

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$9.94

Record

17%

4528-22232 (26760)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$0.69

Record

42%

2468-3377 (5845)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$5.87

Record

45%

116-141 (257)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.92

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$13.23

Record

73%

3108-1129 (4237)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.93

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$10.21

Record

37%

3313-5704 (9017)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$2.34

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.81

Record

27%

2564-7001 (9565)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.