Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic not IPO before 2028?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $78 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$77.84
$60.26
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.3¢ | $177.99 | $68.52 | +$25.19 | 58% 16853-12167 (29020) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $6.74 | $8.54 | +$36.64 | 73% 3100-1126 (4226) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $2.94 | $0.63 | -$2.32 | 52% 160-150 (310) |
FO FolletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.3 | $0.16 | +$0.75 | 68% 428-202 (630) |
Invested
$177.99
Value
$68.52
PnL
+$25.19
Record
58%
16853-12167 (29020)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$6.74
Value
$8.54
PnL
+$36.64
Record
73%
3100-1126 (4226)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$2.32
Record
52%
160-150 (310)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.75
Record
68%
428-202 (630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.