Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $258 held · ends Nov 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$258.19
-$0.57
99.6¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.6¢ | $124.44 | $124.75 | +$0.31 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $84.34 | $83.65 | -$0.69 | 25% 806-2476 (3282) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.96 | +$0.02 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $19.38 | $19.42 | +$0.04 | 50% 4491-4437 (8928) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $5.03 | $4.98 | -$0.05 | 34% 193-382 (575) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $4.95 | -$0.04 | 79% 170-44 (214) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.64 | $0.48 | -$0.16 | 15% 10-56 (66) |
Invested
$124.44
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0.31
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$84.34
Value
$83.65
PnL
-$0.69
Record
25%
806-2476 (3282)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.38
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
4491-4437 (8928)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0.05
Record
34%
193-382 (575)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
79%
170-44 (214)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.16
Record
15%
10-56 (66)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.