Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 90¢ · $315 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$315.29
$0.09
89.8¢ → 89.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $289 | $286.58 | -$2.42 | — |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $12.14 | $8.26 | -$0.57 | — 1-9 (10) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 6.3¢ | $4.1 | $5.85 | +$1.75 | 28% 2400-6141 (8541) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 8¢ | $4.96 | $5.58 | +$0.62 | 50% 4474-4422 (8896) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 8.5¢ | $5.1 | $5.4 | +$0.3 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $1.01 | $1.82 | +$0.81 | 80% 140-34 (174) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $2.2 | $1.8 | -$0.4 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
Invested
$289
Value
$286.58
PnL
-$2.42
Record
—
Invested
$12.14
Value
$8.26
PnL
-$0.57
Record
—
1-9 (10)
Invested
$4.1
Value
$5.85
PnL
+$1.75
Record
28%
2400-6141 (8541)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$0.62
Record
50%
4474-4422 (8896)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.3
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.82
PnL
+$0.81
Record
80%
140-34 (174)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.