Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (81%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 19¢ · $52 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 100%
$52.35
-$8.84
Research grade
AvoidNo at 19%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 81%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.8¢ | $26.96 | $24.52 | -$2.44 | 53% 29797-26632 (56429) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $12.61 | $10.81 | -$1.8 | 61% 15012-9516 (24528) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $7.8 | $5.4 | -$2.4 | 49% 8980-9523 (18503) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 18.6¢ | $5.58 | $5.4 | -$0.18 | 47% 8501-9723 (18224) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.2¢ | $5.4 | $4.36 | -$1.03 | 18% 362-1675 (2037) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $1.42 | $0.93 | -$0.49 | 53% 8440-7509 (15949) |
PL plainfolderCTR<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $0.9 | -$0.5 | 35% 4298-8137 (12435) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$26.96
Value
$24.52
PnL
-$2.44
Record
53%
29797-26632 (56429)
Invested
$12.61
Value
$10.81
PnL
-$1.8
Record
61%
15012-9516 (24528)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$2.4
Record
49%
8980-9523 (18503)
Invested
$5.58
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.18
Record
47%
8501-9723 (18224)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$4.36
PnL
-$1.03
Record
18%
362-1675 (2037)
Invested
$1.42
Value
$0.93
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
8440-7509 (15949)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
35%
4298-8137 (12435)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.