Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.1K
$457.68
58.6¢ → 98¢
+67% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiruaTrading | Noavg 53.9¢ | $377.67 | $781.56 | +$403.89 | 57% 256-197 (453) |
ME merod | Noavg 58.3¢ | $120.16 | $175.71 | +$55.55 | 52% 2439-2232 (4671) |
KO korda77 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $110.03 | $101 | -$9.04 | 52% 4926-4535 (9461) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $11.59 | $15.18 | +$7.21 | 36% 2032-3630 (5662) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $10.7 | $10.77 | +$0.07 | 53% 323-287 (610) |
Invested
$377.67
Value
$781.56
PnL
+$403.89
Record
57%
256-197 (453)
Invested
$120.16
Value
$175.71
PnL
+$55.55
Record
52%
2439-2232 (4671)
Invested
$110.03
Value
$101
PnL
-$9.04
Record
52%
4926-4535 (9461)
Invested
$11.59
Value
$15.18
PnL
+$7.21
Record
36%
2032-3630 (5662)
Invested
$10.7
Value
$10.77
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
323-287 (610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.