Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 21¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$368.23
59.8¢ → 20.5¢
-66% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
620h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
12 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $155.59 | $822.1 | +$558.85 | 53% 1096-980 (2076) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $510.01 | $486.32 | -$8.79 | 28% 280-709 (989) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74¢ | $359.91 | $381.76 | +$19.99 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 27.3¢ | $133 | $104.56 | -$28.78 | |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 36.6¢ | $117 | $68.8 | -$48.2 | 42% 5192-7111 (12303) |
NO nonkenny90CTR | Noavg 95¢ | $179.35 | $35.87 | -$143.48 | 89% 4586-544 (5130) |
 Nostdam<$100 | Yesavg 10.3¢ | $0.18 | $1.24 | +$1.06 | 54% 1426-1222 (2648) |
Invested
$155.59
Value
$822.1
PnL
+$558.85
Record
53%
1096-980 (2076)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$510.01
Value
$486.32
PnL
-$8.79
Record
28%
280-709 (989)
Both legs:
Invested
$117
Value
$68.8
PnL
-$48.2
Record
42%
5192-7111 (12303)
Invested
$179.35
Value
$35.87
PnL
-$143.48
Record
89%
4586-544 (5130)
Nostdam<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$1.06
Record
54%
1426-1222 (2648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.