Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $605 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$604.97
$23.97
74¢ → 92¢
+24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 65.4¢ | $245.25 | $333.75 | +$88.5 | 73% 2903-1056 (3959) |
ME melonmanm | Noavg 90¢ | $200 | $178 | -$2 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $52.5 | $55 | +$2.5 | 60% 3220-2159 (5379) |
 viniiCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $103.26 | $38.23 | -$65.03 | 73% 2677-968 (3645) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.