Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthony Hernandez be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$2.03
-$66.36
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $4.45 | $0.95 | -$3.49 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.14 | $0.54 | -$1.6 | 41% 1295-1880 (3175) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $37.02 | $0.35 | -$36.66 | 49% 9047-9526 (18573) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $13.46 | $0.13 | -$13.33 | 79% 10607-2754 (13361) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $4.41 | $0.04 | -$4.37 | 51% 218-210 (428) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $110.71 | $0.01 | -$6.75 | 55% 6024-5008 (11032) |
TE technician2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $0 | -$0.15 | 53% 454-403 (857) |
Invested
$4.45
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$3.49
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1.6
Record
41%
1295-1880 (3175)
Invested
$37.02
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$36.66
Record
49%
9047-9526 (18573)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$13.46
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$13.33
Record
79%
10607-2754 (13361)
Invested
$4.41
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$4.37
Record
51%
218-210 (428)
Invested
$110.71
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$6.75
Record
55%
6024-5008 (11032)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
454-403 (857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.