Will Anthony Edwards win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$363.86

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 99¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$996.29

Total Shares1,008

Combined PnL+$364.48

Yes4 traders

Total Value$20.51

Total Shares1,346

Combined PnL-$0.61

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

315h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunner	Noavg 91.7¢	$4.5K	$646.7	+$363.59	41% 1295-1881 (3176)
balthazar	Noavg 94.5¢	$306.48	$307.26	+$0.78	55% 25961-21246 (47207)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$42.23	$42.34	+$0.11	63% 5411-3152 (8563)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$9.27	$7.69	-$1.37	18% 4056-19002 (23058)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$6.69	$6.85	+$0.16	44% 2945-3812 (6757)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.36	$3.74	+$0.37	25% 181-542 (723)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.02	$2.24	+$0.22	30% 2189-5039 (7228)

leegunner

Invested

$4,506.44

Value

$646.7

PnL

+$363.59

Record

41%

1295-1881 (3176)

balthazar

Invested

$306.48

Value

$307.26

PnL

+$0.78

Record

55%

25961-21246 (47207)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$42.23

Value

$42.34

PnL

+$0.11

Record

63%

5411-3152 (8563)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.27

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$1.37

Record

18%

4056-19002 (23058)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.16

Record

44%

2945-3812 (6757)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.36

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.37

Record

25%

181-542 (723)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.02

Value

$2.24

PnL

+$0.22

Record

30%

2189-5039 (7228)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

315h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.