Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthony Davis win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $16 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$15.57
-$13.72
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Late
90h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $2.06 | $6.67 | -$6.64 | 72% 13906-5483 (19389) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $1.34 | $3.2 | -$3.13 | 55% 3182-2636 (5818) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $1.27 | $2.4 | -$1.12 | 28% 576-1487 (2063) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.24 | $1.96 | +$1.72 | 38% 7172-11790 (18962) |
DG DG-NOCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $4.24 | $0.5 | -$3.74 | 39% 681-1087 (1768) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.48 | $0.48 | -$0.47 | 47% 10370-11828 (22198) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.32 | -$0.31 | 53% 23766-20936 (44702) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.06 | $0.03 | -$0.03 | 17% 1353-6563 (7916) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.06
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$6.64
Record
72%
13906-5483 (19389)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.34
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$3.13
Record
55%
3182-2636 (5818)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$1.12
Record
28%
576-1487 (2063)
Invested
$0.24
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$1.72
Record
38%
7172-11790 (18962)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$3.74
Record
39%
681-1087 (1768)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$0.47
Record
47%
10370-11828 (22198)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
23766-20936 (44702)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.03
Record
17%
1353-6563 (7916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.