Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $637 held · ends Dec 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Dec 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$636.77

Combined PnL

-$270.61

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$605.32

Total Shares606

Combined PnL+$5.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$31.46

Total Shares20,972

Combined PnL-$276.44

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DO donthackme	Noavg 99.3¢	$342.67	$344.41	+$1.74	68% 13182-6202 (19384)
GO god83743894	Noavg 98.1¢	$196.26	$199.7	+$3.44	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$34.74	$35.25	+$0.51	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.3¢	$131.06	$25.96	+$0.15	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
JO JohnnyWinsCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$116.15	$19.09	-$96.85	43% 125-168 (293)
AnjunCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$132.17	$8.24	-$123.93	55% 5184-4271 (9455)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$105.91	$4.13	-$55.67	59% 1021-711 (1732)

donthackme

Invested

$342.67

Value

$344.41

PnL

+$1.74

Record

68%

13182-6202 (19384)

god83743894

Invested

$196.26

Value

$199.7

PnL

+$3.44

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$34.74

Value

$35.25

PnL

+$0.51

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$131.06

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$0.15

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

JohnnyWinsCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.15

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$96.85

Record

43%

125-168 (293)

AnjunCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.17

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$123.93

Record

55%

5184-4271 (9455)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.91

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$55.67

Record

59%

1021-711 (1732)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

821h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.