Will another result occur for the next governing coalition of Sweden?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 98¢ · $361 held · ends Aug 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$360.74
$59.7
96.6¢ → 97.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
226h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.7¢ | $224.91 | $224.08 | +$1.68 | 75% 13139-4322 (17461) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $87.97 | $84.32 | -$2.48 | 53% 23194-20409 (43603) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $24.78 | $24.61 | -$0.17 | 35% 4298-8137 (12435) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $9.85 | $9.86 | +$0 | 58% 20305-14907 (35212) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 6.5¢ | $7.92 | $7.88 | +$54.4 | 49% 8980-9523 (18503) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.68 | $5.09 | +$4.4 | 73% 3046-1115 (4161) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $2.29 | $4.31 | +$2.02 | 18% 4435-20817 (25252) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.64 | $0.49 | -$0.15 | 36% 2034-3661 (5695) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.3¢ | $0.39 | $0.07 | -$0 | 61% 15012-9516 (24528) |
LucerysInvested
$224.91
Value
$224.08
PnL
+$1.68
Record
75%
13139-4322 (17461)
Invested
$87.97
Value
$84.32
PnL
-$2.48
Record
53%
23194-20409 (43603)
Invested
$24.78
Value
$24.61
PnL
-$0.17
Record
35%
4298-8137 (12435)
Invested
$9.85
Value
$9.86
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
20305-14907 (35212)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$7.88
PnL
+$54.4
Record
49%
8980-9523 (18503)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$0.68
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$4.4
Record
73%
3046-1115 (4161)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$4.31
PnL
+$2.02
Record
18%
4435-20817 (25252)
Invested
$0.64
Value
$0.49
PnL
-$0.15
Record
36%
2034-3661 (5695)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
15012-9516 (24528)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.