Will annual inflation be 4.1% in October?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 100¢ · $772 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$772.47

Combined PnL

$36.91

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.8¢

+3% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$772.35

Total Shares773

Combined PnL+$39.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.12

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$2.62

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 99.9¢	$260.82	$260.81	-$0.01	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.7¢	$140.81	$131.74	-$9.07	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.7¢	$114.7	$114.89	+$0.19	50% 9910-9917 (19827)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$80	$79.8	-$0.1	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$49.95	$49.95	+$0	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$69.9	$39.96	+$0.02	49% 8976-9501 (18477)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$29.99	$29.98	+$48.35	47% 8497-9689 (18186)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$59.94	$29.97	-$0	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$14.24	$14.34	+$0.1	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.95	$10.93	-$0.02	41% 1152-1658 (2810)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.91	$9.99	+$0.08	31% 3549-7932 (11481)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$93	$0.08	-$2.59	30% 2495-5935 (8430)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.7	$0.02	-$0.04	61% 16040-10339 (26379)

Lucerys

Invested

$260.82

Value

$260.81

PnL

-$0.01

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$140.81

Value

$131.74

PnL

-$9.07

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

quietparcel

Invested

$114.7

Value

$114.89

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

9910-9917 (19827)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$80

Value

$79.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.95

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$69.9

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

8976-9501 (18477)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.99

Value

$29.98

PnL

+$48.35

Record

47%

8497-9689 (18186)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$59.94

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

31%

3549-7932 (11481)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$2.59

Record

30%

2495-5935 (8430)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.7

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

61%

16040-10339 (26379)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Late

63h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.