Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (91%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 9.5¢ · $277 held · ends Nov 11

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$277.17

Combined PnL

-$37.08

Smart Money Entry

20.7¢ → 9.5¢

-54% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$206.21

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$62.27

No8 traders

Total Value$70.88

Total Shares746

Combined PnL-$99.35

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

472h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ST Stonktrader<$100	Yesavg 78.6¢	$80.94	$93.22	+$12.28	75% 181-59 (240)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 85.7¢	$55.95	$60.92	+$4.96	18% 4199-19790 (23989)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$7.05	$52.08	+$45.03	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 32.6¢	$78.98	$20.17	-$49.03	46% 10071-11765 (21836)
FI firegoldCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$18	$19	+$2	59% 331-230 (561)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Noavg 21.1¢	$35.68	$16.06	-$20.46	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$27.55	$5.37	-$12.75	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$77.06	$4.11	-$30.21	24% 302-944 (1246)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$3.45	$2.85	-$0.6	51% 3482-3360 (6842)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 11.5¢	$2.3	$1.9	-$0.4	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 29.7¢	$13.43	$1.43	+$12.1	47% 8058-9236 (17294)

Stonktrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.94

Value

$93.22

PnL

+$12.28

Record

75%

181-59 (240)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.95

Value

$60.92

PnL

+$4.96

Record

18%

4199-19790 (23989)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$52.08

PnL

+$45.03

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$78.98

Value

$20.17

PnL

-$49.03

Record

46%

10071-11765 (21836)

firegoldCTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$19

PnL

+$2

Record

59%

331-230 (561)

lissartterCTR<$100

Invested

$35.68

Value

$16.06

PnL

-$20.46

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$27.55

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$12.75

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$77.06

Value

$4.11

PnL

-$30.21

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.6

Record

51%

3482-3360 (6842)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.4

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$13.43

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$12.1

Record

47%

8058-9236 (17294)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 91%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Late

472h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.0%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$811.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

911.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.