Will annual inflation be 3.4% in October?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $536 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$535.79

Combined PnL

-$2.36

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.9¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$534.44

Total Shares535

Combined PnL+$18.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.38

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$20.98

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.8¢	$199.62	$199.8	+$0.1	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.7¢	$553.01	$148.05	-$7.83	70% 14146-6050 (20196)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99.9¢	$174.79	$104.84	-$0.05	38% 7384-11865 (19249)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$99.9	$69.93	+$26.4	46% 9496-11285 (20781)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.82	$11.82	+$0.01	52% 31278-29168 (60446)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.19	$0.18	-$9.95	27% 659-1763 (2422)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.14	-$7.51	68% 13289-6320 (19609)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.18	$0.05	-$2.62	27% 2564-7001 (9565)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$0.92	$0.02	-$0.9	44% 168-212 (380)

cigarettes

Invested

$199.62

Value

$199.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

Lucerys

Invested

$553.01

Value

$148.05

PnL

-$7.83

Record

70%

14146-6050 (20196)

godblessme2026

Invested

$174.79

Value

$104.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

7384-11865 (19249)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$26.4

Record

46%

9496-11285 (20781)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11.82

Value

$11.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

31278-29168 (60446)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$9.95

Record

27%

659-1763 (2422)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.51

Record

68%

13289-6320 (19609)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$2.62

Record

27%

2564-7001 (9565)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.9

Record

44%

168-212 (380)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

76h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.