Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.0K
$50.18
87.4¢ → 81.2¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
518h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AngryRhino | Noavg 89.7¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$207.43 | 69% 131-59 (190) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $66.81 | $281.65 | +$214.84 | 56% 44-35 (79) |
 Gohst<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | $27.42 | $66.57 | +$32.6 | 49% 733-764 (1497) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $46.5 | $43.55 | -$1.55 | 27% 281-776 (1057) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $6.34 | $18.07 | +$11.72 | 36% 2027-3623 (5650) |
AngryRhinoInvested
$1,622.5
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$207.43
Record
69%
131-59 (190)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTRInvested
$66.81
Value
$281.65
PnL
+$214.84
Record
56%
44-35 (79)
Gohst<$100Invested
$27.42
Value
$66.57
PnL
+$32.6
Record
49%
733-764 (1497)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$46.5
Value
$43.55
PnL
-$1.55
Record
27%
281-776 (1057)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$18.07
PnL
+$11.72
Record
36%
2027-3623 (5650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.