Will Andrey Gyurov win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$171.14
$7.02
95.6¢ → 99.8¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 95¢ | $131.56 | $138.2 | +$6.65 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $18 | $17.96 | +$0 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $10.12 | $9.99 | -$0.14 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $4.46 | $4.99 | +$0.51 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
archaicInvested
$131.56
Value
$138.2
PnL
+$6.65
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$18
Value
$17.96
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$9.99
PnL
-$0.14
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.51
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.