Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 83¢ · $301 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$301.39
-$5.67
91.2¢ → 83¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 90¢ | $220 | $194.59 | -$3.41 | 61% 202-130 (332) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 93.6¢ | $106.66 | $103.23 | -$2.31 | 32% 273-576 (849) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $3.51 | $3.57 | +$0.06 | 73% 2660-968 (3628) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.