Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 83¢ · $841 held · ends Jan 21, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$841.07
$88.25
72.8¢ → 83¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 71.7¢ | $660.64 | $752.74 | +$92.09 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 82.4¢ | $51 | $50.01 | +$0.19 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $42.36 | $38.33 | -$4.03 | 57% 13340-10198 (23538) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.