Will Anders Öberg be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Norrbotten?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.2K
$570.98
58.8¢ → 96.9¢
+65% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccd | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $22.53 | $678.03 | +$655.46 | — 1-0 (1) |
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 90¢ | $598.4 | $645.29 | +$46.89 | 53% 1124-1007 (2131) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 85¢ | $519.28 | $591.78 | +$72.51 | 55% 453-367 (820) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 6¢ | $452.04 | $244.85 | -$207.18 | 47% 453-518 (971) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $45 | $47.48 | +$3.3 | 42% 5206-7139 (12345) |
Invested
$22.53
Value
$678.03
PnL
+$655.46
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$598.4
Value
$645.29
PnL
+$46.89
Record
53%
1124-1007 (2131)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$519.28
Value
$591.78
PnL
+$72.51
Record
55%
453-367 (820)
Invested
$452.04
Value
$244.85
PnL
-$207.18
Record
47%
453-518 (971)
Invested
$45
Value
$47.48
PnL
+$3.3
Record
42%
5206-7139 (12345)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.