Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Anderlecht win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $175 held · ends May 30, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, May 30, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$174.69

Combined PnL

-$136.68

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$172.02

Total Shares173

Combined PnL-$124.01

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.67

Total Shares1,067

Combined PnL-$12.67

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

153h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.7¢	$341.58	$93.18	-$123.94	30% 35522-84044 (119566)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$74.63	$74.51	-$0.11	55% 25592-21266 (46858)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$7.81	$4.33	+$0.04	45% 32135-39276 (71411)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.1	$1.25	-$2.85	38% 3028-4886 (7914)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.52	$1.08	-$7.44	30% 2958-6849 (9807)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$0.14	$0.14	-$0.97	50% 9346-9412 (18758)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yes	$0.13	$0.13	-$0.87	32% 8615-18479 (27094)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.37	$0.05	-$0.35	50% 66281-66811 (133092)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.03	-$0.2	17% 246-1180 (1426)

balthazar

Invested

$341.58

Value

$93.18

PnL

-$123.94

Record

30%

35522-84044 (119566)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$74.63

Value

$74.51

PnL

-$0.11

Record

55%

25592-21266 (46858)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.04

Record

45%

32135-39276 (71411)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.1

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$2.85

Record

38%

3028-4886 (7914)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.52

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$7.44

Record

30%

2958-6849 (9807)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.97

Record

50%

9346-9412 (18758)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.87

Record

32%

8615-18479 (27094)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

50%

66281-66811 (133092)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.2

Record

17%

246-1180 (1426)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

153h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5676.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5776.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.