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4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$174.52
$2.19
96¢ → 98¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $76.8 | $78.4 | +$1.6 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $38.4 | $39.2 | +$0.8 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $37.44 | $37.83 | +$0.39 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $17.27 | $17.63 | +$0.36 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $10.32 | $1.01 | -$0.73 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.67 | $0.45 | -$0.22 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$76.8
Value
$78.4
PnL
+$1.6
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Invested
$38.4
Value
$39.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.44
Value
$37.83
PnL
+$0.39
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$17.27
Value
$17.63
PnL
+$0.36
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$1.01
PnL
-$0.73
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$0.22
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.