Will Amir Ohana be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $963 held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$962.82
-$2.99
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 47%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $227.88 | $227.4 | -$0.48 | 25% 96-283 (379) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99.9¢ | $227.17 | $226.26 | -$0.91 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.8¢ | $214.24 | $213.65 | -$0.59 | 51% 4634-4520 (9154) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 99.9¢ | $154.82 | $154.23 | -$0.59 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.75 | -$0.2 | 30% 2683-6207 (8890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $39.86 | $39.8 | -$0.06 | 53% 5637-5072 (10709) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.85 | -$0.12 | 27% 933-2514 (3447) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $13.96 | $13.93 | -$0.03 | 79% 348-95 (443) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.96 | -$0.02 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
Invested
$227.88
Value
$227.4
PnL
-$0.48
Record
25%
96-283 (379)
Invested
$227.17
Value
$226.26
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
balthazarInvested
$214.24
Value
$213.65
PnL
-$0.59
Record
51%
4634-4520 (9154)
Invested
$154.82
Value
$154.23
PnL
-$0.59
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
2683-6207 (8890)
Invested
$39.86
Value
$39.8
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5637-5072 (10709)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.12
Record
27%
933-2514 (3447)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$13.93
PnL
-$0.03
Record
79%
348-95 (443)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.