Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of 2026?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 77¢ · $187 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$186.62
-$2
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $185.07 | $138.92 | -$8.77 | 21% 292-1070 (1362) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.9¢ | $106.74 | $106.86 | -$1.52 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28¢ | $39.07 | $32.06 | -$7.25 | |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $38.5 | $38.5 | +$0 | 73% 8251-3122 (11373) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $11.2 | $9.2 | -$2 | 18% 523-2344 (2867) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.