Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $123 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$122.62
-$12.38
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.7¢ | $80.62 | $80.02 | -$0.42 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.7¢ | $57.38 | $48.02 | -$9.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $23.02 | $32 | +$8.98 | |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $34.85 | $30 | -$12.38 | 73% 8251-3122 (11373) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12.6 | $12.6 | +$0 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.