Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.09

Combined PnL

-$82.68

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$1.09

Total Shares2,178

Combined PnL-$82.68

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Late

597h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$12.84	$0.17	-$12.68	32% 304-636 (940)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$11.91	$0.15	-$11.76	31% 251-564 (815)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$11.91	$0.15	-$11.76	32% 303-642 (945)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$11.91	$0.15	-$11.76	31% 279-608 (887)
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$9.93	$0.13	-$9.8	41% 379-537 (916)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$9.93	$0.13	-$9.8	28% 159-408 (567)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$9.93	$0.13	-$9.8	30% 184-437 (621)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	-$5.33	57% 3046-2290 (5336)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.84

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$12.68

Record

32%

304-636 (940)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.91

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$11.76

Record

31%

251-564 (815)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.91

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$11.76

Record

32%

303-642 (945)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.91

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$11.76

Record

31%

279-608 (887)

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.93

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$9.8

Record

41%

379-537 (916)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.93

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$9.8

Record

28%

159-408 (567)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.93

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$9.8

Record

30%

184-437 (621)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$5.33

Record

57%

3046-2290 (5336)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 30%

Freshness

Late

597h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 30% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.