Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $158 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$157.9
$0.03
99.1¢ → 98.3¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $49.5 | $49.6 | +$0.1 | 24% 75-243 (318) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $34.6 | $34.65 | +$0.05 | 30% 2678-6206 (8884) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.76 | $29.76 | -$0 | 40% 1453-2158 (3611) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $19.84 | +$0.04 | 51% 4631-4518 (9149) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $19.2 | $19.02 | -$0.17 | 26% 858-2483 (3341) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.02 | $5.03 | +$0.01 | 37% 3176-5375 (8551) |
Invested
$49.5
Value
$49.6
PnL
+$0.1
Record
24%
75-243 (318)
Invested
$34.6
Value
$34.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
2678-6206 (8884)
Invested
$29.76
Value
$29.76
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
1453-2158 (3611)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$19.84
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4631-4518 (9149)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$19.02
PnL
-$0.17
Record
26%
858-2483 (3341)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.02
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
3176-5375 (8551)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.