Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$0.1
-$6.86
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 36%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.49 | $0.02 | -$1.47 | 37% 3468-5985 (9453) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.03 | $0.02 | -$1.02 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.03 | $0.02 | -$1.02 | 27% 949-2550 (3499) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $1.03 | $0.02 | -$1.02 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.86 | $0.01 | -$0.85 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.83 | $0.01 | -$0.82 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.4 | $0.01 | -$0.4 | 5% 4-73 (77) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $0.28 | $0 | -$0.27 | 43% 2575-3401 (5976) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$1.49
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.47
Record
37%
3468-5985 (9453)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.02
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.02
Record
27%
949-2550 (3499)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.02
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.85
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
Invested
$0.83
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.82
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.4
Record
5%
4-73 (77)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.27
Record
43%
2575-3401 (5976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.