Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $26 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$25.87

Combined PnL

-$6.3

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$25.36

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$2.02

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.51

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL-$8.31

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GenaTheBondKilIer<$100	Noavg 92¢	$23.35	$25.36	+$2.02	51% 548-533 (1081)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.21	$0.21	+$0.21	58% 16808-12140 (28948)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.34	$0.15	-$0.18	26% 7302-21086 (28388)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$5.44	39% 5748-9161 (14909)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.07	$0.03	-$2.04	38% 2376-3821 (6197)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.33	$0.01	-$0.32	31% 3243-7118 (10361)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.12	$0.01	-$0.11	72% 13809-5348 (19157)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.38	37% 4013-6774 (10787)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.07	$0	-$0.07	19% 2872-12252 (15124)

GenaTheBondKilIer<$100

Invested

$23.35

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$2.02

Record

51%

548-533 (1081)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

58%

16808-12140 (28948)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.18

Record

26%

7302-21086 (28388)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$5.44

Record

39%

5748-9161 (14909)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.04

Record

38%

2376-3821 (6197)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.32

Record

31%

3243-7118 (10361)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.11

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

4013-6774 (10787)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

PnL

-$0.07

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (8 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.