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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoNo
Istaroth<$100No
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of October 2026?
Resolved No. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$38.79
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares147
Combined PnL-$38.79
No5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 29%No — 71%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $19.78 | — | -$21.04 | 56% 258-201 (459) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $17.75 | — | -$17.75 | 70% 3144-1356 (4500) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 75.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6516-5727 (12243) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 62.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2457-2279 (4736) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 55.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
KI
KiruaTradingCTR<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
—
PnL
-$21.04
Record
56%
258-201 (459)
SB
sbimbgCTR<$100Invested
$17.75
Value
—
PnL
-$17.75
Record
70%
3144-1356 (4500)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6516-5727 (12243)
ME
merod<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2457-2279 (4736)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb6ebaa6c...f9588f
Slug
will-alphabets-market-capitalization-be-between-3pt50t-and-4pt00t-at-the-end-of-october-2026