Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of November 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 41¢ · $712 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$711.75
$300.12
19.3¢ → 40.5¢
+110% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
82h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LiquidifierCTR | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $173.88 | $509.67 | +$335.8 | 50% 1200-1185 (2385) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 61.1¢ | $503.05 | $108.54 | -$50.93 | 59% 436-303 (739) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.3¢ | $28.8 | $37.2 | +$8.4 | 17% 4496-22008 (26504) |
 thanksforplayin<$100 | Noavg 51.1¢ | $28.83 | $32.14 | +$3.31 | 56% 706-557 (1263) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $20.29 | $17.13 | +$1.84 | 37% 3298-5675 (8973) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $5.56 | $5.83 | +$0.61 | 26% 7307-21087 (28394) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $0.12 | $1.21 | +$1.09 | 72% 13834-5358 (19192) |
Invested
$173.88
Value
$509.67
PnL
+$335.8
Record
50%
1200-1185 (2385)
PippiTraderInvested
$503.05
Value
$108.54
PnL
-$50.93
Record
59%
436-303 (739)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$28.8
Value
$37.2
PnL
+$8.4
Record
17%
4496-22008 (26504)
thanksforplayin<$100Invested
$28.83
Value
$32.14
PnL
+$3.31
Record
56%
706-557 (1263)
Invested
$20.29
Value
$17.13
PnL
+$1.84
Record
37%
3298-5675 (8973)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.61
Record
26%
7307-21087 (28394)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$1.21
PnL
+$1.09
Record
72%
13834-5358 (19192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.