Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of November 2026?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 47¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$286.6
$0.62
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PippiTraderCTR | Yesavg 47.4¢ | $142.09 | $140.03 | -$2.07 | 61% 364-232 (596) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $88.93 | $91.14 | +$2.64 | 53% 7533-6661 (14194) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 53.8¢ | $40.38 | $39.97 | -$0.4 | 72% 8554-3323 (11877) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $15.08 | $15.46 | +$0.45 | 38% 2939-4707 (7646) |
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$142.09
Value
$140.03
PnL
-$2.07
Record
61%
364-232 (596)
Invested
$88.93
Value
$91.14
PnL
+$2.64
Record
53%
7533-6661 (14194)
Invested
$40.38
Value
$39.97
PnL
-$0.4
Record
72%
8554-3323 (11877)
Invested
$15.08
Value
$15.46
PnL
+$0.45
Record
38%
2939-4707 (7646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.