Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $271 held · ends Dec 1

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$271.4

Combined PnL

-$1.36

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 98¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$266.46

Total Shares272

Combined PnL-$3.96

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.93

Total Shares235

Combined PnL+$2.6

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99¢	$118.8	$117.48	-$1.32	53% 5614-5046 (10660)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$43.11	$42.29	-$0.82	37% 3161-5372 (8533)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.73	$29.37	-$0.36	21% 66-241 (307)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.92	$29.37	-$0.54	14% 60-372 (432)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$24.91	$24.45	-$0.45	51% 4609-4510 (9119)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$23.95	$23.5	-$0.46	30% 2667-6201 (8868)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.33	$4.93	+$2.6	— 0-14 (14)

cigarettes

Invested

$118.8

Value

$117.48

PnL

-$1.32

Record

53%

5614-5046 (10660)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.11

Value

$42.29

PnL

-$0.82

Record

37%

3161-5372 (8533)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0.36

Record

21%

66-241 (307)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.92

Value

$29.37

PnL

-$0.54

Record

14%

60-372 (432)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$24.91

Value

$24.45

PnL

-$0.45

Record

51%

4609-4510 (9119)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.95

Value

$23.5

PnL

-$0.46

Record

30%

2667-6201 (8868)

GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$2.6

Record

—

0-14 (14)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.