Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Alperen Sengun win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $67 held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$66.72

Combined PnL

-$6.37

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$64.68

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares795

Combined PnL-$6.39

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$64.66	$64.68	+$0.02	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.24	$1.75	-$2.49	38% 681-1101 (1782)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$1.34	$0.2	-$2.63	55% 3188-2644 (5832)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yes	$9.95	$0.06	-$0.87	37% 3313-5704 (9017)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.24	$0.03	-$0.39	38% 7207-11845 (19052)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$64.66

Value

$64.68

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$2.49

Record

38%

681-1101 (1782)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.34

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.63

Record

55%

3188-2644 (5832)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.95

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.87

Record

37%

3313-5704 (9017)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.39

Record

38%

7207-11845 (19052)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.