Will Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of November 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $164 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$163.88
-$1.01
99.8¢ → 99.2¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $64.85 | $64.46 | -$0.39 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.9 | $59.52 | -$0.38 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.18 | $20.06 | -$0.12 | 79% 177-47 (224) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.84 | -$0.12 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
Invested
$64.85
Value
$64.46
PnL
-$0.39
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$59.9
Value
$59.52
PnL
-$0.38
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Invested
$20.18
Value
$20.06
PnL
-$0.12
Record
79%
177-47 (224)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.84
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.