Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $260 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$259.79
-$0.05
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Late
192h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $104.9 | $104.84 | -$0.05 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $65.11 | $65.08 | -$0.03 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.93 | $39.94 | +$0.01 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.96 | +$0.02 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.97 | +$0.01 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
Invested
$104.9
Value
$104.84
PnL
-$0.05
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Invested
$65.11
Value
$65.08
PnL
-$0.03
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$39.93
Value
$39.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.96
PnL
+$0.02
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.97
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.