Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $9 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$8.93

Combined PnL

-$44.94

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$8.82

Total Shares8,822

Combined PnL-$44.94

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.74	$5.43	-$33.91	57% 766-585 (1351)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$2.4	$1.2	-$1.2	21% 2287-8754 (11041)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.1	$0.76	-$1.23	77% 11702-3591 (15293)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$5.87	$0.71	-$5.16	7% 14-192 (206)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.31	$0.4	-$2.91	18% 49-220 (269)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.51	$0.25	-$0.25	18% 4077-19120 (23197)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.22	$0.05	-$0.17	40% 653-982 (1635)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.12	$0.02	-$0.11	48% 9346-10229 (19575)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.74

Value

$5.43

PnL

-$33.91

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.2

Record

21%

2287-8754 (11041)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$1.23

Record

77%

11702-3591 (15293)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$5.16

Record

14-192 (206)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.31

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$2.91

Record

18%

49-220 (269)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

18%

4077-19120 (23197)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

653-982 (1635)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

9346-10229 (19575)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8990.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

9090.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.