Will "Ali G: Who Iz I?" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $2M?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.7K
-$32.25
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
126h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Yesavg 93¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | -$55.45 | 75% 80-27 (107) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.2¢ | $3.51 | $8.64 | +$32.94 | 18% 3681-16276 (19957) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Yes | $6.72 | $6.72 | -$0.63 | 51% 418-405 (823) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 5¢ | $10.53 | $6.21 | +$10.95 | 39% 1753-2717 (4470) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 13.7¢ | $113.72 | $4.28 | -$20.05 | 36% 14106-25213 (39319) |
cat-dogInvested
$2,683.45
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$55.45
Record
75%
80-27 (107)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$3.51
Value
$8.64
PnL
+$32.94
Record
18%
3681-16276 (19957)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.63
Record
51%
418-405 (823)
Invested
$10.53
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$10.95
Record
39%
1753-2717 (4470)
Invested
$113.72
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$20.05
Record
36%
14106-25213 (39319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.