Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 2.6¢ · $35 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$34.53
-$279.62
29.9¢ → 2.6¢
-91% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 siickCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $284.85 | $24.69 | -$283.42 | 55% 839-694 (1533) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $5.12 | $7.99 | +$2.87 | 47% 8799-9989 (18788) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 46.3¢ | $0.8 | $1.72 | +$0.92 | 29% 3599-8831 (12430) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.12 | $0.13 | +$0.01 | 36% 9048-16196 (25244) |
siickCTRInvested
$284.85
Value
$24.69
PnL
-$283.42
Record
55%
839-694 (1533)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$2.87
Record
47%
8799-9989 (18788)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$1.72
PnL
+$0.92
Record
29%
3599-8831 (12430)
Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.01
Record
36%
9048-16196 (25244)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.